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Bearish case is simple: we go maximum to $6300 and after that we see a correction towards $4800 or $4200. I think if this scenario plays out we will see a litte bit of sideways movement where alts have some space to move.

Risk/reward of being bearish now is pretty high. If the bullish case plays out I expect a retrace anyway to at least $6000, which it is at right now.

Not financial advice, just some scenarios.

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10 COMMENTS

  1. Alternative theory below for info………

    As BTC has gone above the $100 billion BTC market cap, just a reminder that this level (the Hoffman Line after ex Wall Street analyst Andy Hoffman) held for a whole year during the bear market from Oct 2017 til November 2018. It seems only to have been broken because of the BCH/BSV split and the ‘hash wars’ that followed. It will be interesting to see whether it provides base support again. See quote below, from about a year ago as to why. Something to do I believe with fiduciary requirements of large institution. Ref ssm59 quote below

    ssm59 – A bit more generational knowledge coming at you. I have more than a decade on Andy he is dead straight about the hundred billion dollar market cap. While his insight In the crypto space is remarkable, the idea actually goes back to Peter Lynch in his 1989 book “One up on Wall Street”. In the book Lynch explains that amateur investors have a distinct advantage over institutional firms due to the fiduciary limits imposed by the SEC. Most companies that achieve Fortune 500 status are only available for the large investment houses in the final phases of their initial growth curve. The individual investor has the chance get in and ride the curve from below micro-cap all the way up making far better returns than the professional traders. BTC is the first financial instrument that anyone, be it a kid with lemonade stand money, a college student with some part time income, or a retiree with some left over from their social security, can invest at the ground floor. This must have goaded the big boys to no end. For the first time in history, they were closed out while John Q. Public could get in at the ground floor that used to be reserved for VC’s. Now that BTC is finally available to them there is no way they will let it slip below the floor. Since they were cut out of the rise to $100B, they will use their financial power to pump and dump in a effort to shake out the weak hands gathering as much as they can at minimum prices while jumping in to keep the market cap stable. Regardless of when you got in, this ride is just starting. Hang on and ride the curve baby

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